D.1. The Primacy of Uncertainties:
I. Since the Good Character in any Causal Order is subject to Knowledge, and since Knowledge is subject to its weaknesses (See 9 in Knowledge), the final outcomes of a Causal Order of Goods is subject to the weakness of knowledge which creates an uncertainty of first order goods inversely proportional to completeness of that knowledge.
II. Since knowledge and control are two of four defining variables of a good, the entire Causal Order of Goods suffers an uncertainty with regards to quantity and quality of any order of goods subject to the extents of human knowledge and control of useful properties of all higher order goods.
III. Since good character of useful things serving our needs depends upon our knowledge, and our control, there is an uncertainty of good character of it inversely tied to our knowledge and control of the forces affecting its production (or even the consumption).
Axiomatic Derivation:
1. The Primacy of Need Satiation holds True.
2. The Causal Order of Goods is composed of Good Characters.
3. The Good Character imply a Need, Useful Things, Knowledge, and Control.
4. The Knowledge implies weakness of knowledge (See 9 in Knowledge).
5. Weakness of knowledge implies imaginary uses, or imaginary needs.
5.1. Since uses depend on needs (See Knowledge), we can simplify that weakness of knowledge is but one - the imaginary uses of things.
6. From Dependency of the Good Characters it follows that the quantities and qualities of a Good of Order i, outputs, depend upon the quantities and qualities of Useful Things of Goods of Order i+1, inputs.
7. Weakness of the knowledge of Useful Things of Order i+1 implies either quantities and qualities of Goods of Order i are as much as , more than, or less than needed due to 5 and 6.
7.1. Since in the presence of incomplete knowledge, it remains uncertain what outcomes are possible, why they exist, how to mitigate problems as they arise, how to extract the most uses from any useful thing, etc etc.
8. The 7 implies that the weakness of knowledge of useful things at any order yields an uncertainty of outcomes, or goods, of the immediate lower order.
9. The 7 and 8 imply that after expenditure of time, the final outcomes or the consumable goods developed may or may not be as much as for given Human Needs i.e. Need Satiation Uncertainty exists under weakness of knowledge.
10. Uncertainty of Need Satiation implies Possibility of Negating Need Satiation.
11. It is understood that the weaker the knowledge, the increased possibility of negating the Need Satiation.
12. Need Satiation having a Primacy (See 1) cannot be uncertain, or cannot be negated with significant chances.
13. The 12 implies a negation of the increased possibility of negating the Need Satiation.
14. The 13 implies negation of the increased weakness of knowledge.
15. The 14 implies lowered weakness of knowledge, acquisition of further knowledge, completeness, and accuracy of knowledge which is relevant to the Causal Order of Goods.
16. Therefore, Primacy of Need Satiation implies increased Knowledge.
17. First Primacy of Uncertainty:
From 12, Primacy of Need Satiation implies Mitigating Uncertainty acquires a Prime significance in Need Satiation, and thus uncertainty acquires prime significance in Need Satiation.
18. Second Primacy of Uncertainty:
18.1. Observation: Given the complexity of the Economy, and indirect interlinks among agents etc, weakness of knowledge cannot be fully eliminated.
18.2. From 18.1. it is necessary that there is some degree of weakness of knowledge left.
18.3. Necessity of weakness of knowledge implies necessity of uncertainty of final outcomes (first order of goods) in future.
18.4. Necessity of Uncertainty of final outcomes in future negates with necessity the Primacy of Need Satiation.
18.5. Notwithstanding 18.1-4, continuous attempts are made to mitigate uncertainty.
18.6. 18.5 establishes the second source of Primacy of Uncertainty.
Explanations:
E.1. Since all good character of anything depends on our need, its useful properties given our need, our knowledge of these properties, and our control of these (For details see Goods), the more knowledge and more control one has of useful properties, the more accurately one can put it in the service of ones needs.
E.2. From E.1 it is immediate that in all possible contingencies, the more knowledge and control we have, the more immune to random externalities we are when using a useful thing for our gratification.
E.3. Rephrasing E.2: The certainty of quantity and quality of any order of goods depends on the knowledge and control of immediately higher order goods. This follows immediately from definition of Good, and from Causal Order of Goods (Schema E.4.).
E.4. Consider the following exposition of E.3.
a) Since not all provisions of nature can be consumed directly, they must first be transformed into intermediate goods and then goods for final consumption i.e. a production process precedes final consumption. This production process depends on how much knowledge, and control do we have of the forces affecting this process. And depending upon more or less knowledge, and more or less control, we can be more or less exposed to random shocks of nature, and accordingly, more or less exposed to uncertainty of final outcomes.
b) Consider a much simpler example. For instance, if you know how to bake your own bread, you may recall your learning curve. Or for our purpose, recall your learning curve of anything. In case of baking one's own bread, in the first few days, when one has little knowledge, or little control of the process, even in this simplest activity, the knowledge and control determines the certainty of quantity and quality of bread i.e. number of errors and waste, and readiness to confront any random contingency shall it arises.
c) So we can say, in the jargon of the Causal Order of Goods, the knowledge and control of second order goods i.e. flour, heat, water, labour determines the quantity and quality of the first order good i.e. bread.
d) This logic extends to consumption as well. A poor driver with less knowledge of driving a car may or may not reach in time where he or she must reach, and is exposed to unknown factors to which he or she knows not how to respond. For the simplest case, changing gears of old cars can pose problems for those familiar only with auto gears.
E.5. Moreover, from the Schema E.4. in Causal Order of Goods we can deduce that our knowledge and control of any level of goods can have effects that ripple over the rest of the Causal Order of Goods downwards.
Consider for an instance, a poor knowledge in farming; It can have uncertain impacts on the quantity and quality of wheat produced in a year which in turn affects the quantity and quality of flour we would have next year and later the quantity and quality of bread that year. Eventually, this poor knowledge and control of farming which leaves us at the mercy of random externalities of nature aggravates the uncertainty with which our population, in coming next year, will gratify their hunger.
E.6. Combining E.3. and E.5. with The Primacy of Time, we can deduce that since all current provident activity is governed by needs of the future, depending upon our knowledge and control of Causal Order of Goods, all provident activity is subject to a degree of uncertainty.
E.7. A fundamental observation holds: Can we ever have all knowledge and full control? It seems that some factors still evade our comprehension and control, and perhaps some will always evade and so long as the utopian omniscient omnipotent man is absent from stage of the world, our world is governed by uncertainties of outcomes of our strife in pursuit of our future satisfactions.
Even our best methods have not prevented agriculture, for instance, from shocks of nature. And the whole Causal Order of Goods, or the production process from raw materials to final goods, is marked with uncertainties; from conditions of supply of raw material to behaviour of financial markets, from conditions and reactions of labour to decisions of politicians, let alone major unpredictable events whose impacts ripple decades such as Indonesian Tsunami of __ induced by earthquake, Chernobyl, Fukuyama, 09/11, Corona etc etc.
E.8. Accordingly, all four deductions E.3, E.5, E.6, and E.7, establish the Primacy of Uncertainty in our lives.
E.9. INSERT the Probability map
Consider the following probability map for an elaboration.
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Reference: Menger, Carl (2004). Principles of Economics, Online edition, The Mises Institute, 2004. (Chapter 01 Section 4)